LA VALUTAZIONE DEGLI INVESTIMENTI PER LA MOBILITÀ: UN MODELLO MATEMATICO DI AIUTO ALLA DECISIONE

Abstract

The Italian mobility system is characterized by obsolete, inefficient, often unsafe infrastructural networks and by long and complex processes in public administrations, as well as by procurement legal disputes that discourage private investments: these multiple factors hinder the socio-economic development and the national GDP growth. In the EU report “Transport in the European Union" of March 2019, Italy is below the European average, both in terms of the services quality and the reliability of the transport network, with over 80% car trips. Logistics, local public transport and related modal integrations (train-bus-bicycle, etc.), and tariffs are fundamental elements for “sustainable development". Considering the strategic importance and the problem relevance, in this paper, the variables characterizing the quadrinomial “infrastructural network-mobility service-economy-environment" are analysed in order to develop a mathematical model to support the decision-making process for transport investments. The proposed algorithm allows to evaluate the right choice among not indifferent alternatives which respect technical, economic and ecosystemic constraints. Thanks to this model, the project manager is able to evaluate and choose the best alternative for improving the “territory-mobility" system into a global configuration which considers the overall impact (all effects) of the investment, taking into account every possible scenario. The model is based on the elements of function theory and linear and relational algebra: through pre-established “input" parameters, a decision-making strategy is set up to achieve pre-established strategic objectives, with “excellent" decision trajectories which maximize the global utilities of the project or of the action program.